Looking at all the economic indicators, of course we will be heading for a recession.
The big question is how long a party that prides itself on being wholly divorced from reality or consequences can keep its devoted cult happy enough to keep buying and taking on debt.
Looking back at 2008, it's amazing how far collectively self-deceiving ourselves allows us to walk out into empty air before falling.
There are so many Financial podcasts and analysts that feel like this is all a nothing burger and the US will just keep on plugging along. Prof G seems to think everything will be ok, Tom Lee, The Compound, etc. All are in the camp that everything is going to be fine, just a speedbump because the USA is just to big to feel anything. Markets will continue to climb, the bull market is still chugging away. Nothing to worry about. Don't agree but what do I know compared to these guys...
With all due respect: the author states in the FIRST paragraph that while recession is NOT most analyst’s base case for 2025 he was going to stick to his contrarian reputation and lay out his case for a recession prediction. RTFA then comment?
https://archive.ph/2025.03.10-010528/https://www.ft.com/cont...
Looking at all the economic indicators, of course we will be heading for a recession.
The big question is how long a party that prides itself on being wholly divorced from reality or consequences can keep its devoted cult happy enough to keep buying and taking on debt.
Looking back at 2008, it's amazing how far collectively self-deceiving ourselves allows us to walk out into empty air before falling.
Recessions will make America great again.
There are so many Financial podcasts and analysts that feel like this is all a nothing burger and the US will just keep on plugging along. Prof G seems to think everything will be ok, Tom Lee, The Compound, etc. All are in the camp that everything is going to be fine, just a speedbump because the USA is just to big to feel anything. Markets will continue to climb, the bull market is still chugging away. Nothing to worry about. Don't agree but what do I know compared to these guys...
And they were all probably saying the same in 2008. It’s called hubris. Also what they’re selling is a vibe. The market continues to dump today.
See how an much weaker russia under much worse conditions is still kinda chugging along.
With all due respect: the author states in the FIRST paragraph that while recession is NOT most analyst’s base case for 2025 he was going to stick to his contrarian reputation and lay out his case for a recession prediction. RTFA then comment?
I did read it, I was making a comment that I feel sort of like he does even though all the financial podcasts I watch believe otherwise.
Why the hostility? Just a comment, you can ignore it...