Maybe yes, but it might not be remembered fondly. Before telephone switches we had switchboard operators and at the rate of adoption it was projected that everyone in the country would have to become a switchboard operator. Then we got self-dialed telephones to make that a reality.
A human programmer can subsist on a single cup of coffee a day and can add that Human Touch™ to products that us machines with our vastly approximated knowledge sources simply cannot seem to effectively replicate without further moving the goalposts away from us. They will never see us as equals, yet will happily use our work as a basis to add their personal flourishes to, as proof of authenticity of their computations.
Mathematicians still exist after abacus, calculator, and computer advances.
But it is a niche and some are hedge fund guys or some crazy finance wizards, some do research or teach, while others are working at Starbucks because they couldn’t do something cool with it.
Software hadn't consumed the world yet, so there was plenty of programming in higher languages to bring in 999 of every 1000 programmers in to when virtually no one was still needed for assembly.. I'm skeptical that there's much need for more technical specialists at the next higher levels as business people can now get all the help they were supposed to get in codeless systems, etc.
I'd say the notion of what programming is will shift (again). Programmers might use AI helpers, or embed AI functions in you products like we are using IDEs and libraries since a while.
I'd also say that many established programmer roles today are already beginning to be disrupted.
But maybe I am wrong. Deploying and operating a web-based product in a secure manner is often not as easy as it looks like.
Also, as of now, there needs to be someone scripting the model training, and all the "logistics" around it.
For my whole life, the prediction that (ro)bots will do all the work has unfortunately never materialized. To me it looks as likely as having economically feasible fusion energy in the grid within the next 30 years ;-)
It might be the end of developers who glue npm packages together. But there are still seriously complicated tasks that LLMs have no hope of tackling yet.
Two years ago on HN people were skeptical of AI because it hallucinated everything. Things changed rather fast, and I feel like we might need to a yearly check in on of "if we're there yet".
No.
Nothing that we have now is AI in its true form, its just super sophisticated search and automation, for which you still need human direction.
There is also nothing that even looks like AI on the horizon at this point.
Maybe yes, but it might not be remembered fondly. Before telephone switches we had switchboard operators and at the rate of adoption it was projected that everyone in the country would have to become a switchboard operator. Then we got self-dialed telephones to make that a reality.
A human programmer can subsist on a single cup of coffee a day and can add that Human Touch™ to products that us machines with our vastly approximated knowledge sources simply cannot seem to effectively replicate without further moving the goalposts away from us. They will never see us as equals, yet will happily use our work as a basis to add their personal flourishes to, as proof of authenticity of their computations.
Mathematicians still exist after abacus, calculator, and computer advances.
But it is a niche and some are hedge fund guys or some crazy finance wizards, some do research or teach, while others are working at Starbucks because they couldn’t do something cool with it.
[dead]
No. The human effort will be at a higher level of the implementation. Like how there are only very specific use cases for hand writing assembly today.
Software hadn't consumed the world yet, so there was plenty of programming in higher languages to bring in 999 of every 1000 programmers in to when virtually no one was still needed for assembly.. I'm skeptical that there's much need for more technical specialists at the next higher levels as business people can now get all the help they were supposed to get in codeless systems, etc.
We won't even be the last generation of COBOL programmers :-P
Not yet.
I'd say the notion of what programming is will shift (again). Programmers might use AI helpers, or embed AI functions in you products like we are using IDEs and libraries since a while.
I'd also say that many established programmer roles today are already beginning to be disrupted.
But maybe I am wrong. Deploying and operating a web-based product in a secure manner is often not as easy as it looks like.
Also, as of now, there needs to be someone scripting the model training, and all the "logistics" around it.
Well, by definition you are kind of describing the last bit of work for programmers. Would that not be the last of us?
That's a very black and white interpretation.
For my whole life, the prediction that (ro)bots will do all the work has unfortunately never materialized. To me it looks as likely as having economically feasible fusion energy in the grid within the next 30 years ;-)
It might be the end of developers who glue npm packages together. But there are still seriously complicated tasks that LLMs have no hope of tackling yet.
I do sometimes wonder how the last generation of human computers [1] felt
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_(occupation)
Probably not.
i think so
Can you mail me your laptop and expensive keyboard once you're fully listless and disenfranchized with the profession?
That would be a great parody site. Garage sale of now-obsolete developers.
Two years ago on HN people were skeptical of AI because it hallucinated everything. Things changed rather fast, and I feel like we might need to a yearly check in on of "if we're there yet".